Last Updated: 19 August 2026 · By Ehtisham Saeed, RTO Marketing Specialist
One pathway went backwards in the final LSAY data. It’s the pathway most private RTOs sit in.
Among Australians who turned 25 in 2025, only 54% of those holding a VET qualification other than an apprenticeship or traineeship had a permanent job. In 2019, the same figure was 67%.
Every other pathway in the data moved the opposite way. Apprenticeships and traineeships climbed to 82%. University degrees climbed to 80%.
That number comes from Generation Z: navigating life at 25, published by NCVER on 18 August 2026. It’s the final major release from the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth, a study that has followed more than 60,000 young Australians since 1995.
By the end of this post, you’ll know exactly what the data says, the three reasons you shouldn’t over-read it, and what to change in your marketing and your student support before the next enrolment cycle.
What the LSAY Data Actually Says
LSAY compared three cohorts at age 25: those surveyed in 2013, 2019 and 2025. Here’s the permanent employment share by highest qualification completed.
| Highest qualification at 25 | 2013 | 2019 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apprenticeship or traineeship | 78% | 80% | 82% |
| University degree | 71% | 76% | 80% |
| Other VET qualification | 60% | 67% | 54% |
Read the bottom row twice. That pathway gained seven points between 2013 and 2019, then lost thirteen between 2019 and 2025.
The gap between an apprenticeship and a non-apprenticeship VET qualification is now 28 percentage points. In 2019 it was 13. The structural differences between the pathways, and how prospective students weigh them, are covered in our RTO vs TAFE comparison.
Why “Other VET” Is the Segment Most Private RTOs Live In
“Other VET qualification” is a broad category. It covers Certificate II, III and IV qualifications and Diplomas that weren’t completed through an apprenticeship or traineeship pathway.
That’s the core delivery mix for most private RTOs. Certificate III and IV sit at the highest enrolment volume in the sector. Certificate IV and Diploma qualifications dominate the fee-for-service market because the price point sustains private delivery.
So this isn’t an abstract sector statistic. For a large share of Australian RTOs, it describes the outcome profile of the students you enrolled six or seven years ago.
Three Things to Say Before You Use This Number
The honest reading matters more than the dramatic one. Three caveats change how much weight the 54% can carry.
LSAY measures the highest qualification held at 25. A student who finished a Certificate IV at 19 and then completed a degree at 23 is counted in the degree row, not the VET row. That means the “other VET” group skews toward people for whom VET was the endpoint, not the stepping stone. As more young Australians use VET as a pathway into higher education, the composition of that group changes over time.
This cohort entered the labour market through COVID. They turned 25 in 2025, which places their first years of full-time work somewhere between 2018 and 2022. That’s not a normal early-career run.
Permanent employment is shrinking for everyone. Across the whole cohort, full-time employment among those working fell from 75% in 2013 to 65% in 2025. Underemployment rose from 9% to 13%. Casualisation is a labour market trend, not a VET-specific verdict.
Add one more technical note. Subgroup estimates in longitudinal samples carry wider uncertainty than headline figures. A single-cohort movement in a smaller cell deserves more caution than a trend confirmed across three points.
None of that makes the number go away. It just means the honest claim is narrower than the headline.
The Claim That Survives All Three Caveats
Here it is: the sector-level employment outcome for non-apprenticeship VET is no longer a marketing asset you can borrow.
For years, RTOs could gesture at NCVER outcome data as generic proof that VET works. That worked when the number was going up. It doesn’t work when a student, an employer, or a funding body can pull up a chart showing your pathway trending down while both alternatives trend up.
Which leaves exactly one credible option. Use your own numbers.
The Data You Already Own and Probably Don’t Use
Every RTO submits Quality Indicator data annually. The Learner Engagement and Employer Satisfaction surveys sit in the Quality Indicator Annual Summary Report you file with ASQA.
Most RTOs treat that as a compliance chore. It’s also the only outcome evidence about your students that carries your name on it.
Three sources of RTO-specific outcome evidence:
- Your Quality Indicator data. Learner Engagement and Employer Satisfaction results, submitted annually.
- NCVER’s Student Outcomes Survey. Provider-level data on employment and further study after training.
- Your own graduate destination tracking. The most useful and the most neglected. A structured follow-up at three, six and twelve months post-completion, recorded in your student management system, builds an evidence base nobody else has.
That third one is worth building even if it takes two years to become useful. It’s the difference between quoting a sector average and quoting your own graduates. How to display that evidence compliantly on your website is covered in our RTO reputation management guide, and the measurement framework sits in our RTO marketing KPIs guide.
Financial Stress Doubled. That’s an Enrolment Problem.
The wellbeing figures in this release are the ones most RTOs will skim past. They shouldn’t.
Financial stress among 25-year-olds went from 18% in 2013 to 22% in 2019 to 37% in 2025. Probable serious mental illness went from 5% to 10% to 18%. The share living with parents rose from 38% to 44%.
Three practical consequences for how you sell and support training.
Fee transparency now beats discounting. When more than a third of your prospective cohort reports financial stress, the question isn’t whether your course is cheap. It’s whether the total cost is knowable before they commit. A course page that shows total fees, payment terms and the refund policy before the enquiry form converts better and satisfies pre-enrolment information requirements at the same time. One fix, two problems.
Wellbeing support is now demand, not paperwork. Quality Area 2 of the 2025 Standards requires that wellbeing support or referral to external support is available to students, and that you can evidence students actually received support. With 18% of the age group reporting probable serious mental illness, that requirement has stopped being theoretical. Building wellbeing check-ins into your student communications is covered in our post-enrolment welcome sequence framework.
The household is part of the decision. With 44% of 25-year-olds living with parents, family influence on a Certificate III or IV enrolment decision is real. Fee structure, course duration and job prospects get discussed at a kitchen table you’re not sitting at. Your course page is the only thing in that room representing you.
One Finding That Contradicts a Common Assumption
Among 25-year-olds who were studying, the share studying full-time rose from 56% in 2013 to 57% in 2019 to 63% in 2025.
Older students are studying more intensively, not less. If your delivery model assumes that adult learners always want the slowest, most flexible, most part-time option, that assumption is worth retesting against your own enquiry data.
What You Still Cannot Say
This data does not change the marketing compliance rules, and it creates a specific temptation worth naming.
You cannot use a sector-level statistic to imply an outcome for your own students. “82% of apprenticeship graduates hold permanent jobs” is a true NCVER finding. Placed on a course page next to an enrolment button, it reads as an outcome promise for your course, and the 2025 Standards prohibit guaranteeing an employment outcome that isn’t within your control.
What you can do:
- Cite the source and the population precisely. “NCVER’s 2026 LSAY release found that 82% of Australians whose highest qualification was an apprenticeship or traineeship held a permanent job at age 25.”
- Describe real destinations without guaranteeing them. “Our graduates are working in aged care, disability support and community services roles.”
- Reference industry salary data as industry data, not as a promise.
What you cannot do: guarantee employment, guarantee a placement rate you can’t document, or present a national average as your own result. The full list of language that crosses the line sits in our prohibited phrases guide.
What to Do This Month
Four actions, in order of return.
Pull your own outcome data. Find your most recent Quality Indicator Learner Engagement and Employer Satisfaction results and your provider data from NCVER’s Student Outcomes Survey. If you’ve never read them properly, that’s a two-hour job that changes what your marketing can honestly claim.
Move fees above the fold. Total fees, payment terms and refund policy on the course page, visible before any enquiry form. Not in a downloadable PDF four clicks deep.
Name your wellbeing referral pathway publicly. Put it on the course page, not only in the student handbook. It’s a pre-enrolment disclosure and a differentiator at the same time.
Start graduate destination tracking. Build a three, six and twelve month follow-up into your SMS workflow. In two years you’ll have the only outcome evidence that actually belongs to your RTO.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is LSAY and who runs it?
The Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth is a research program run by NCVER, the National Centre for Vocational Education Research. It tracked young Australians from age 15 through to 25, capturing their transitions through school, further study and into work. Six cohorts participated between 1995 and 2026, covering more than 60,000 young people. Generation Z: navigating life at 25, published 18 August 2026, is the final major release from the program.
Why did permanent employment for VET graduates fall to 54%?
NCVER’s infographic reports the figure without attributing a cause. Several factors plausibly contribute: this cohort entered the labour market during and after the pandemic, casual and contract employment increased across the whole age group, and the composition of the “other VET” category shifts as more young people use VET as a pathway into higher education rather than an endpoint. The data shows the movement. It does not establish why.
Does this mean VET qualifications are losing value?
Not across the board. Apprenticeship and traineeship pathways improved to 82%, the strongest result of any pathway in the data and better than a university degree. The decline is specific to VET qualifications completed outside an apprenticeship or traineeship. Employment outcomes also vary widely by qualification and industry, which a national average cannot show.
Can my RTO use NCVER employment data in marketing?
Yes, if you cite it accurately and don’t present it as your own result. State the source, the year and the population the figure describes. Do not place a national statistic in a position where a reasonable reader would take it as a promise about your course. Under the 2025 Standards, guaranteeing an employment outcome outside your control is prohibited.
What employment outcome claims can an RTO legally make?
You can describe where real graduates are working, reference published industry salary or workforce data as industry data, and report your own documented outcomes if you can evidence them. You cannot guarantee employment, promise a placement rate you can’t substantiate, or claim a completion timeframe inconsistent with training package requirements.
Where can I get employment outcome data for my own RTO?
Three sources: your annual Quality Indicator Learner Engagement and Employer Satisfaction data, provider-level results from NCVER’s Student Outcomes Survey, and your own graduate destination tracking. The third takes the longest to build and is worth the most, because it’s the only evidence that belongs specifically to you.
What Happens Next
If your course pages are still relying on sector averages to make the case for your qualifications, that argument just got weaker. The stronger position is your own outcome evidence, displayed compliantly, with every employment claim inside the rules.
Start with the claims you’re making right now. RTO Scanner reviews your website copy against the phrases ASQA flags, including the employment-guarantee language this data will tempt more RTOs to reach for, and validates your RTO code against training.gov.au in real time. Free, in under five minutes.
Then, if you want a second set of eyes on what your own outcome data could be doing for your enrolments, book a strategy call.
